Ukraine considers retreat from Kursk; what next?
Ukraine’s offensive into the Russian Kursk Oblast began on 6th August 2024 being the first foreign power to invade Russian territory since WW2. However, six months later, Ukraine’s offensive is faltering and at dire risk of collapse.
The offensive into Kursk was not the first incursion into Russia during the war in Ukraine. Between March 2023 and March 2024, four raids have been launched into Russia from Ukrainian territory by the anti-Putin groups ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’ and ‘Freedom of Russia Legion’. It is important to note that all these incursions were orchestrated by independent actors, and not the Ukrainian armed forces. This is why the invasion of Kursk is an outlier; it was carried out by the Ukrainian armed forces and at a much larger scale than the previous raids.
It is theorised that the reasons for the Kursk offensive include boosting Ukrainian moral, to distract Russian troops from the front line and to show the US and Nato that Ukraine is still a fighting force. Ukraine’s gamble is looking more unlikely to pay off, considering Ukraine’s latter two aims are failing. Russia has had to redirect some troops to Kursk, but Ukraine’s plan was foiled with the advent of North Korean troops being supplemented into Kursk to avoid Russia’s offensive units being moved. Secondly, with the advent of Donald Trump being elected to the White House, America seems less interested in helping Ukraine. In fact, Donald Trump has suspended aid to Ukraine and paused intel sharing between the two countries. These combined factors have led to a significant Russian offensive to recapture Kursk.
Russia has made breakthroughs along the front in Kursk, and concerningly, is advancing south of the main area of Ukrainian control. This opens up the Ukrainian armed forces there to encirclement. It is estimated 10,000 Ukrainian troops are at risk of encirclement in Kursk. This would be disastrous for the Ukrainian army, which is already struggling with troops numbers so, to avoid this fate, Ukraine is considering retreating from Kursk. A retreat would clearly signal the failure of Ukraine’s gambit in Kursk and, depending on the success of retreat, could lead to even more Ukrainian losses. If the Ukrainian army is chased out of Kursk, being attacked whilst retreating, the losses they could suffer might mean they do not have enough troops to man the Ukrainian border. An ambitious Russia could take advantage of this to create a buffer zone along the border, replicating its current buffer zone in Kharkiv oblast.
Ukraine’s current position looks dire, and with the discussion of peace talks, Ukraine may not find itself in the best spot. The country’s gambit in Kursk does not appear to have paid off, and the future of the region remains uncertain.
Article accurate as of 9th March 2025
Sources:
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