An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032. Should we be worried?

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has been given a 1 in 45 chance of impacting the Earth on 22nd December 2032. The asteroid is estimated to be about 40-90 meters wide. 

2024 YR4 was discovered on 27th December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile and since then has garnered media attention over the last few months, as the probability of it impacting the Earth has been steadily increasing. Despite the 98% chance that the asteroid will safely pass by Earth, news outlets have labelled the object a “City Killer” and discuss using “nuclear weapons” to deflect. 

1 in 45 is high odds for a near-Earth object and combined with its mass would place it as a category 3 threat on the Torino scale. The scale ranges from 0-10, with 10 being a certain global risk impact. Assuming the asteroid does strike, NASA has been able to sketch out a very broad area where the asteroid is likely to strike. This zone runs from the eastern Pacific Ocean to northern South America, the Atlantic coast of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. If the asteroid hits the ocean, there is unlikely to be any devastation, as the impact would not be large enough to generate powerful Tsunamis. However, the asteroid does have the potential to strike densely populated areas such as India, Bangladesh and Nigeria. This raises cause for concern, as the asteroid may be large enough to do significant damage to populated areas, generating powerful air blasts which could flatten large areas. 

This isn’t the only time in recent history that an asteroid of this size has crossed paths with Earth. In 1908, an atmospheric explosion of an asteroid 50-60 meters wide flattened large areas of forests in Tunguska, Siberia. The area was so sparsely populated that few were affected. Another more recent example was the meteor which exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia on 15th February 2013, indirectly injuring 1500 people.  

With this in mind, how worried should we be? The probability of an impact causing mass devastation is low, but possible. There is still much we don’t know, such as the density of the asteroid which influences its capacity for destruction, or if it will land in the first place. With so much uncertainty, there is a high likelihood 2024 YR4 will not have a direct effect on Earth. 

Sources: 

“Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring” (28.01.25), CNEOS, JPL, NASA – via archive.ph 

“2024 YR4” (07.02.25), NASA – via science.nasa.gov 

“2024 YR4” (27.12.24), Minor Planet Center, IAU – via archive.org 

“Asteroid warning: How YR4 ‘city-killer’ is biggest threat to Earth yet” (16.02.25), Express 

“Nuclear weapon could be used to defend Earth from asteroid 2024 YR4, astronomer says” (06.02.25), Sky News 

“Asteroid 2024 YR4 Is Level 4 On The Torino Scale, With A Very Close Approach In 2023. That’s Not Great” (28.01.25), IFLSCIENCE 

“Do You Need to Worry About an Asteroid Hitting Earth?” (14.02.25), Time 

“The number of victims of the meteorite approaching 1500” (18.02.13), top.rbk.ru – via archive.org 

All hypothetical asteroid predications calculated using Earth Impact Effects Program, ICL 

Article accurate as of 25.02.25